(Artificial) Intelligence saturation and the future of work

Summary: if physical work can't be automated as easily as information work, then human labor will shift to physical stuff (plumbing, surgery) and wages will increase. But if information work can substitute for physical work then wages fall. In the authors' simulations, wages generally rise first then fall as automation intensifies.

In my opinion, there's an important factor they mostly ignore: there are jobs where we demand a human, even if AI could technically do it. I suppose there could be mechanical judges, prostitutes, politicians, and priests, but regulations and/or people's preferences might keep humans in those roles. There are already mechanical psychotherapists, of course, but perhaps there will always be a market for human psychotherapists, and their wages might be high if they have an irreplaceable role in a niche.