Quality in the Age of Slop

96 points by sinclairtarget


emk

My fear is that software development is a dead profession walking. Not because agents can actually do the hardest and most demanding parts of the profession, but because the vast majority of software in the world has always been dodgy crap that just needs to limp along. This will combine with a classic "market for lemons", where most SaaS software will become buggy crap, and buyers will have no ability to distinguish it from the good stuff. And this will drive prices and demand downward. Somebody will still be employed writing software, but the total numbers will eventually decline, and the job will mostly become slop management. The exception will be a few lucky people working on "systems of record" and other stuff that has to work. But this will be like the small number of people who make a truly good living as movie stars, professional athletes, musicians, or game developers: a demanding craft where supply of qualified workers far exceeds demand, and only a handful make a good living.

But that's only the medium term. The real goal of the AI labs is to build something that can replace human intellectual and physical labor entirely, at lower cost than any human. They don't know how to do it yet, but they will spend every last dollar on the planet trying. The thing the investors dream of building would actually be an evolutionary successor to the human race. Again, they don't know how to do it. But they'll try.

So as for my personal AI policy:

  1. For those cases where I care about the craft, I'm settling on using coding agents as an "artist's assistant", sort of like the people that painted the backgrounds for the great painters. Opus 4.8 is actually the wrong tool for this, because it's already too smart. You can lose track of your codebase I a reckless hour or two. I'm currently quite fond of Qwen3.6 27B, which is smart enough to run down a bug, carry out a refactoring, or implement a well-specified feature in code I understand. But as soon as I lose my understanding of the code, I get punished by the model getting confused. (And anyone who is bothered by how I maintain my open source software is entitled to a full refund of $0.)
  2. My public policy position is that only fools and idiots would build their own evolutionary successor without some guarantee that coexistence is possible. Therefore, I flatly oppose building true human-level intelligence. But I oppose it at the international treaty level. But not the fake kind of international treaty. The sort of treaty where if you violate it, the US and China freak out at a deep level and commit to stopping your training runs. Local data center bans are fine and good, but if some asshole builds SkyNet in Iceland or the Middle East, then you still need to fight SkyNet. Stopping AI is fundamentally a state level problem. Harassing open source maintainers for having an AGENTS.md file is not a serious praxis.

So I largely agree with the OP. Software development can be a true craft, and I have spent 30 years of my life getting paid well do something I love. But if models improve much more, we risk entering a world where the number of people who truly love the craft of software exceeds the demand for actual software craft. The dark matter of corporate internal apps will be mostly happy with slightly better slop than they're getting right now, and that is the bulk of actual jobs in the profession.

I do mourn for my chosen profession. But I mourn more for the world and for the human race. We don't need to invest every scrap of our wealth trying to build something smarter and cheaper than a human, something that could be replicated with a cp command. But we're going to burn all the those resources trying.