AI Trading in Real Market
9 points by sporto
9 points by sporto
An experiment on measuring AI's trading abilities.
This is effectively reading tea leaves and then throwing dice.
Yeah the recent book "AI Snake Oil" explains generative AI versus "predictive AI", and explains why predictive AI can't work (which should be fairly clear to technical people, but still worth explaining and arguing)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_Snake_Oil
And it covers why "predictive AI" is particularly full of scams [1] -- e.g. trying to predict when people will commit crimes and the like [2]
Though to argue the other side, in trading, you can get some advantage by doing things that other people aren't doing, and having data that others don't have. But this doesn't look like anything others don't have:
Claude 4.5 Sonnet, DeepSeek V3.1 Chat, Gemini 2.5 Pro, GPT 5, Grok 4, Qwen 3 Max
In the unlikely case that it works, it will only work for a short time.
[1] which is weird because generative AI is also full of scams, but predictive AI more so ...
I was interested at first, until I saw the "real market" was crypto, and from the content of the chats, it looks like all the strategies are what I'd call "algorithmic." e.g. if X goes Y% above Z do A, etc.
I was hoping someone had given the chat bots access to a bloomberg terminal and the ability to trade on NYSE.
This is an old blog post but it provides details about the difficulties of building an algorithmic trading system. I found it really fascinating and well-written. Hopefully also relevant to this post.
Original link doesn’t work anymore so I used the archived link but you can also find more info on orange site
I’ve noticed an increase in vibecoding posts incorrectly tagged ai lately - question for the mods: I’ve been flagging as off-topic when I’ve seen them, is this the right way to go?
I'm not a mod, but my understanding is that the preferred path, when something is on-topic for the site overall but mis-tagged, is to use the suggest link under each story, right next to the flag link, to suggest a different tag. If a quorum of users agree on the suggestion, the tag gets applied without moderator intervention, even. I forget what the quorum is, but it's not a large number.
Oh great, that’s exactly what I was looking for. Thanks
Yes, please do just 'suggest', it's a big help.
The quorum for suggestions that @hoistbypetard mentions is 2. I assumed, given growth, that we'd have to increase it years ago, but it hasn't been abused. (Perhaps in part because we've avoided having a tag of shame and the tag hotness penalties don't mean much when stories regularly make the homepage with 2 votes or a couple decent comments.)