I Don't Like LLMs

72 points by cameron


spillybones

On the other hand, I’m fearful of the damage AI might cause: agent swarms taking over our virtual and physical infrastructure, designing bio weapons. But, back on my first hand, LLMs might also design miracle cures, and come up with clever ways to raise our prosperity.

I really, really object to this framing. Dario Amodei goes particularly hard on the "making bioweapons or curing cancer" framing of AI, and it's complete bullshit. Today's LLMs are good at some tasks and bad at others. They're good at outputting code that looks similar to code in their training data (which can be quite useful), and they're very bad at doing biology work, whether nefarious or benevolent. The argument that LLMs could create a bioweapon or cure any disease depends on so much handwaving and so many assumptions that the "produce outputs similar to its training set" technology will actually be really good at inventing new things if we feed in enough training data and run enough agents. And not only that, but it assumes that the major barrier to curing diseases is that we need a robotic "ideas guy" to output some plausible-sounding ideas. We don't, in fact, have a shortage of ideas to test in medicine. It's actually just extremely expensive, risky, and time-consuming to test ideas.

The fact that so much AI discourse includes bioweapons and medical breakthroughs as talking points is a major feat of propaganda from both the AI salesmen and their close cousins, the Rationalist AI apocalypse cultists. It distracts from productive conversations about the harmful and helpful things that LLMs are actually good at (like finding security vulnerabilities in code).