Is the transition to IPv6 inevitable?

39 points by andyc


david_chisnall

The argument for a while has been that there will be inflection points where large groups are v6-only and then you really want to use v6 to be reachable by them. This hasn’t happened much. We have CGNAT for v4 and it’s awful, but there are two big commercial incentives against v6:

If addresses are scarce, it’s easy to justify not being hole to run servers on consumer connections. Hosting providers love this. With 1Gig symmetric FTTP connections being rolled out (not ubiquitous, but not ludicrously expensive outliers anymore), most people’s personal hosting requirements can easily be served by their own local network with a $25 server. Why do you need YouTube when you can share videos from your own connection without ads or dependence on a third party that can decide to ban you for no reason?

If addresses are scarce, you can sell them for more. Vultr has a cheaper tier that is v6-only, but hosting companies that have a load of IPv4 addresses don’t want to incentivise the transition they want to sell more. Azure’s pricing for v4 and v6 addresses is the same. A v4 address doesn’t cost the same amount as a v6 /48 or a /64, it costs the same as a /127. This makes no sense unless you realise that it’s easier to sell v4 addresses if people don’t transition to v6.